Shoot First, Ask Later: How Trump's Tariff Tactics Are Fracturing the Western Alliance

"Our strategy on tariffs will be to shoot first and ask questions later."— A top economic policymaker from Donald Trump’s administration, late last year.

This bold, aggressive approach is currently en vogue in Washington. However, the shoot-from-the-hip tactics of the current U.S. leadership carry significant risks—not only for America but also for the nations targeted by these tariffs.

Economic and Strategic Dangers

The immediate economic risks to the U.S. are well known: higher inflation and disruptions in industry. Yet, the longer-term strategic consequences may be even more alarming. Trump's tariffs have the potential to fracture the unity of the Western alliance. By targeting allies, he is inadvertently driving them together against what they perceive as American aggression. Initially, any cooperative response might be informal, but as the tariff battles drag on, these alliances are likely to become more consolidated.

A breakdown in Western unity plays directly into the hands of adversaries like Russia and China. Although Trump has frequently expressed admiration for both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, his appointees—Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz—have emphasized that countering Chinese power is a central strategic priority for the U.S. If containment of China is truly the goal, then imposing tariffs on China, along with Mexico and Canada, is counterproductive. These measures are likely to foster a convergence of interests among these nations—and even the European Union, which has already been warned that it might be next.

A Shift from Biden’s Collaborative Approach

When the Biden administration assumed office in 2021, the EU was on track to finalize a new investment agreement with China. However, mounting pressure from Washington, coupled with missteps by Beijing, caused that initiative to collapse. By the end of Biden’s term, the U.S. and the European Commission had forged a closer partnership aimed at “de-risking” trade with China and curbing exports of key technologies. Biden’s strategy was rooted in the belief that the U.S. stands a better chance against China when allied with other advanced democracies.

In stark contrast, Trump’s strategy has been to aggressively target America’s allies rather than its adversaries. The result? A real risk of pushing these allies closer to China. European policymakers already recognize that their ambitious green energy targets are unachievable without Chinese electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels. The potential loss of the American market only heightens their reliance on China. In fact, when I mentioned to a senior European official that the EU might begin warming up to China again, she confirmed that such discussions are already in progress.

Rethinking Threats: U.S. or China?

In recent months, some influential Europeans have even started debating whether the greater threat now comes from the U.S. or from China—a notion that would have been unthinkable just two months ago. Yet it is Trump—rather than Xi Jinping—who is openly discussing efforts to erode the independence of Canada, a NATO ally, and it is Trump’s administration, along with figures like Elon Musk, that is stirring far-right movements in Europe.

While Chinese mercantilism and Beijing’s support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine remain major obstacles to a full European rapprochement with China, a shift in U.S. focus away from Ukraine could pave the way for a closer EU-China relationship, especially if Beijing adopts a firmer stance on Russia.

Implications for Latin America and Beyond

Trump’s aggressive posture isn’t confined to North America. Latin American countries are increasingly bristling at U.S. threats, particularly regarding Panama and Mexico. Given Trump’s expressed determination to reclaim control of the Panama Canal and his hardline stance against Mexican drug cartels, there remains a real possibility of escalated U.S. actions—possibly even military intervention—against these nations.

Yet, the hardline approach toward Mexico is likely to backfire. Should tariffs trigger a severe recession in Mexico, the ensuing surge in desperate migrants seeking refuge in the U.S. would exacerbate existing challenges. Simultaneously, drug cartels—immune to the effects of tariffs—could gain even greater power and influence.

The Unavoidable Retaliation

Both Canada and Mexico are acutely aware of the formidable challenge posed by a trade war with the U.S., yet national pride and the need to appear strong leave them little choice but to retaliate. As one European foreign minister recently remarked, “If Trump punches you in the face and you don’t punch back, he’ll just hit you again.”

Countries like Britain and Japan, which have not yet been directly targeted, might feel momentarily relieved. However, assuming that maintaining a low profile will offer lasting protection is a dangerous misconception. If Trump’s initial tariff campaign proves successful, it is likely he will identify new targets to keep the momentum going.

A Call for Caution in Corporate America

Corporate America must also take note. The prevailing narrative of a resurgence in “animal spirits” across the U.S. economy is dangerously misguided. What Trump’s policies effectively offer is a return to economic isolation and a fragmentation of the Western alliance—an outcome that would spell disaster not only for American business but for the nation as a whole.

In summary, while Trump’s tariff strategy is being touted as a bold move to safeguard American interests, its far-reaching implications may well undermine the very foundations of U.S. economic and strategic strength. The true cost of these policies will likely be measured not only in economic terms but also in the erosion of long-standing international alliances that have, until now, been a cornerstone of global stability.